Just writing to clear things up in my head, because this is
shaping up to be a pretty clear-cut scenario from a betting standpoint . (And
it’s been pointed out to me that my initial conclusions tend to be more
accurate than they are after a week’s worth of sifting through minutia.)
Initial thoughts on Horsey horses:
*Gun Runner has since scratched, but leaving in
b/c of related thoughts…
Gun Runner
– Asmussen will run him or he won’t. My bet is that he’s waiting on the weather
forecast to see how big of a wash-out it’s going to be on Saturday. Right now
it’s calling for 90% showers, but the timing is unclear. Post-time is 5:45
central, and I just find myself thinking back to the deluge that was falling around
that time last year, and Tale of Verve picking off horses in the lane after
Pharoah had determined the outcome. Made for a pretty fancy superfecta, and I
see no reason why the same couldn’t happen this year. In all honesty, I’m
almost counting on it. But Gun Runner might be the biggest cog in keeping the
ticket cost low and the payouts high. I’d love to toss him completely. And
while it will definitely affect the odds for the field if Asmussen does it for
me, I don’t really care. If it’s wet (and I mean wet-wet), he’s not finishing
better than 3rd or 4th – best case scenario. He has one
race in the slop, his stakes debut, where he came up an empty 4th at
Churchill in November. I won’t get caught up with the distances, but that was
1/8 shorter than the Derby, and he was done with 1/8 to go in the Derby. So now
we’re going to throw in a quick turnaround and soak the track? Asmussen isn’t
running him. Point him to the Travers – a good rest and a bout with Mohaymen,
everybody wins.
Cherry Wine
– (a.k.a Tale of Verve?) I’m not listing these horses in order of favoritism or
projected order of finish, but rather by importance – or by the level of which I
think their involvement will affect the parimutuel outcomes. So let’s flip the
script and look at the bad weather performance for another horse, with a
different running style. Gun Runner’s stalking/pace-setting style didn’t work
out for him in the slop the one time he had the chance, or allow him to hold on
against the big boys in the Derby. And while Cherry Wine has definitely not had
a great track record of stacking up against the big boys, he may find himself
in the middle of a perfect field with the perfect running style, under perfect
conditions, to get the job done. He was left out of the Derby field (2nd
on the also eligible list behind Laoban), and is among 4 others who are not
dealing with the 2-week turnaround from the Derby. If we go back to that same
Saturday in Louisville last November where Gun Runner was missing the board for
the 1st time, Cherry wine was gobbling up rivals in the lane on the
way to breaking his maiden 4 races earlier. There’s some sort of symmetry
there, and I think he’s every bit good enough to hit the board here on a muddy
track.
And I want to say one more thing about Gun Runner – Were it
not for some jockey antics on the far turn (by Kent Desormeaux - among others)
that would have amounted to disqualifications in any other race, Gun Runner
would have felt pressure from more foes, earlier in the stretch, and done well
to finish 5th in the Derby. I don’t move forward from that race and
‘pencil’ him into any type of major award, even with the shorter distance at
Pimlico.
Nyquist-
Should win this race. I’ll have to figure out who he’ll be sitting off of after
the post draw, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he even goes right to the lead.
No need to mess around here. Probably better to stay clean, and he is the best
horse. Just need to focus on the weight and structure of each bet so that
you’re protected from an odds-on favorite, and can still manage to get paid.
Exaggerator-
Love him from a style and ‘weather-preparedness’ standpoint much in the way
that I like Cherry Wine, and he obviously has the class and experience
advantage. The quick turnaround can be something to take into consideration, but
the Desormeaux brother’s aren’t messing around, and they say he’s very fit and
plenty ready. If you hear them (Keith especially) talk, you know they want this
– ready for that rain and ready to do anything they can to get a win on
Saturday. From my vantage point, Kent almost caused a 4-horse pile-up in the
Derby, just appeared to throw caution to the wind. He’ll have to time his move
a little bit more precisely and manage that emotion this time around though.
The turns are a little bit tighter, more like a paper-clip, tougher to carry
momentum through when you have to make your move a little earlier than usual. There
are also around 82 fewer feet of track to work with between the end of the far
turn and the finish line (vs. Churchill). All little things, but all things
that have to be overcome to try and beat a horse that you’ve never beat, again.
Stradivari-
So he hasn’t beaten anybody. Ok? This argument does nothing for me when you’re
comparing completely different sample sizes. Has he attempted to beat anybody? Where
is he in his 3yo career? How many attempts does he have under his belt? How is
he trending? What do his work comps look like? The Brisnet’s and Equibase’s of the world will
do their damnedest to provide us with comps and measurables that can translate across
all fields, tracks, distances and conditions. (see below – stolen for convenience
from @racing_dudes & @Brisnet) But at some point, I have to give the nod to
a horse that’s trending upward. He’s 2nd off the layoff, following
up on his 3yo romp of a debut, comparing himself with a horse or three that
have shown they can barely hit the board against the big boys, and are trending
flat, if anything. I’m fine with it being trendy when that’s exactly what is
called for – and let’s face it, we’re talking about finishing out the card
under the big two here, aren’t we? Yes I’ll throw a few bucks his way a little
higher up the board in case there’s a stumble, but I’m using him underneath,
and I think he has WAY more upside than the next few horses that have proven
their averageness time and time
again.
Lani –
This horse will take some money, and I have no problem with that. It will make
for better prices on the horses that I will be including. From all reports, he’s
still doing everything on his own, no partner to breeze with during workouts,
being kept away from all others except when absolutely necessary, and just too
much to deal with between the ears. I feel like the connections are just doing
bits now, and that if honestly asked, they were probably pleasantly surprised with
a 9th place finish in the Derby. They won’t be as pleased with a
similar finish in this field. One other note – he apparently is still having trouble
consistently changing leads, something that I had never noticed, only being privy
to a handful of his races and works. How is that anything but a hindrance when
you factor in tighter turns and a shorter straightaway to recover in on
Saturday?
Collected-
Simply put, I just believe that this is a solid grade-2 miler moving forward,
and I don’t think he’ll like the
distance, the conditions, or the fact that he won’t be allowed to be as close
to the pace as he would like to be. I really see him having to compete with
Nyquist and Stradivari to be in that second flight just off the early speed,
and can’t imagine a scenario in which they don’t shuffle him right back. I
foresee a struggling horse, mid-pack, carrying about 15 extra lbs. of mud by
the time he rounds the far turn. It’s just going to be too much to overcome.
And if you’re not a fan of predicting the future, then feel free to look to the
past – he’s come from garbage races at garbage paces, and has already been relegated
off the board against the likes of Whitmore and Suddenbreakingnews.
Laoban –
Previously beaten by Collected. Re-read above for further supporting
documentation. Really, I’m going to look back at all of his past performance
info again to see if there is something that I’m missing, but I just don’t see
where he fits. There has to be a better race on this card for him after missing
the Derby.
Fellowship
– He should have the opportunity to close down the center with Cherry Wine well
after Exaggerator makes his initial move. Can he compete and pick up a piece or
two? Seems unlikely after his last effort, but might be a safety-net inclusion
on the bottom of an exotic or two in the event that one of the favorites misfires.
Uncle Lino
– Steady, consistent. Will be around early, and will struggle to hang on for a
share of the superfecta late. If you’re just tuning in, think Gun Runner in the
Derby. If not, think Uncle Lino in any other race of relevance he’s ever run.
Awesome Speed and
Abiding Star - could make things interesting once the post draw is
complete, since both figure to be on or near the lead early, and to eventually give
way and create traffic late. I think Uncle Lino outclasses both, and there are
4 horses that I like better than Uncle Lino, so for the time being, they are
just eliminated by process. I’ll look back at them again though, same with
Laoban and Collected after the post draw.
I bet Kent Desormeaux does something crazy aggressive. I
wish there was a prop bet for an ‘objection’ or ‘DQ.’
Predicted order of finish 5/18 @ 1:15 pm
Nyquist
Exaggerator
Cherry Wine
Stradivari
Uncle Lino
Fellowship
Collected
Abiding Star
Awesome Speed
Lani
Laoban
